Canary Islands will likely experience a hotter summer than normal

The summer of 2024 is very likely to be warmer than usual across Spain, with potentially lower than normal rainfall, according to Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

During a press conference held to present the spring climate summary and the seasonal forecast for summer, Del Campo indicated that this summer could rank among the top 20% warmest recorded in the northern third of the peninsula and the eastern Canary Islands (Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, and Fuerteventura). Specifically, there is a 50% to 70% chance of this occurring, although the probability is lower in the rest of Spain.

Additionally, Del Campo noted that the upcoming quarter is expected to see below-normal rainfall, particularly in the north and parts of the interior of the peninsula. However, he urged caution with this prediction compared to the temperature forecast, which seems clearer.

Del Campo also mentioned that Europe is expected to experience a similar summer forecast as Spain, with more than a 70% probability that much of Southern Europe and Northern Africa will have one of the warmest 20% of summers.

In another point of discussion, Del Campo highlighted that the spring of 2024 was the tenth warmest since AEMET's records began in 1961 and the eighth warmest since 2006. He emphasized that springs with above-normal temperatures have been frequent in the last 18 years, highlighting the warming trend affecting Spain's climate.

Regarding rainfall, Del Campo noted that it was "close to average," with 189.4 liters per square meter (l/m²), which is 5% more than usual. However, there were significant regional and monthly differences.

For example, the extreme north experienced an extremely wet spring, while the southeast of the peninsula ended up extremely dry. In terms of the calendar, March saw "double the normal rainfall"—making it the fourth wettest March of the 21st century—mainly due to the 'Nelson' storm during Easter.

In contrast, April was the fourth driest April of the 21st century, with only half the normal rainfall. May was generally dry, with only two-thirds of the usual rainfall. "Since March had a lot of rain, although the other two months had little, it balanced out," Del Campo explained.